The accelerating climate risk of European protected areas

Measuring climate metrics to assess exposure risk within Protected Areas and their surrounding regions

A new study involving the Department of Biology and Biotechnologies “Charles Darwin” at Sapienza University of Rome reveals the future scale and intensity of climate change across Europe, with a particular focus on its network of protected areas. Published in the journal Global Change Biology, the research carries important implications for the future of conservation policy across the continent.

While climate change impacts all ecosystems, the rate and extent of these impacts vary significantly between regions. Some areas are projected to undergo faster or more intense changes than others—recognising these patterns is crucial for assessing the resilience of existing protected areas and informing the strategic planning of future conservation efforts.

Conducted within the Horizon Europe project “NaturaConnect,” the international study identifies both the European protected areas most exposed to climate change and potential “climate refugia”—areas where climate shifts are projected to be slower and less intense.

“This research,” explains Marta Cimatti, joint first author of the study alongside Valerio Mezzanotte, “allowed us to quantify the velocity and magnitude of projected climate change using the most up-to-date climate datasets, and to compare the exposure of protected and non-protected areas.”

“Our findings show that many European species already considered vulnerable to climate change are confined to regions likely to face abrupt climatic shifts,” adds Valerio Mezzanotte. “These include both well-known species, such as the Iberian lynx, and lesser-known species like the Pyrenean frog.”

The study also underscores that climate change has not been sufficiently integrated into the process of protected area designation, which could undermine their long-term effectiveness as conservation refugia for biodiversity.

“Climate change is accelerating faster than expected, and the risk within European protected areas is as high as outside them, if not higher” explains Moreno Di Marco, senior author of the study and head of Sapienza’s Biodiversity and Global Change Lab. In this context, Identifying the most vulnerable areas is essential to guide conservation efforts that include climate adaptation measures, including increasing ecological connectivity and ecological restoration efforts under the recent Nature Restoration Law.

This research represents a crucial step toward climate-proofing Europe’s protected areas and ensuring the development of an effective Trans-European Nature Network (TEN-N) in the face of accelerating climate change.

Rana pyrenaica

Photo: ©Samuel GUIRAUDOU / iNaturalist CC BY 4.0

Reference:

  1. Cimatti, V. Mezzanotte, R. Heikkinen, M. Hällfors, D. Karger, M. Di Marco (2025). The accelerating exposure of European protected areas to climate change. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70261

Biodiversity & Global Change lab | Department of Biology and Biotechnologies |“Charles Darwin”, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy

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