3.Baselines and scenarios for European biodiversity
Work package lead: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Wilfried Thuiller
Work package co-lead: Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), Eloy Revilla
Designing an ecologically-representative, resilient and well connected Trans-European Nature Network (TEN-N) depends on accurate information on the location of biodiversity, ecosystem and ecosystems services data, and scenarios about different, but likely, possible future changes.
In this work package, we are identifying, documenting, mobilizing and curating the baseline biological, environmental and socio-economic data available for the European continent. The biological data will be used to evaluate spatial completeness and adequateness for deriving relevant indicators, and to identify key areas, species and/or habitats for future biodiversity monitoring in Europe. We will then use state-of-the-art modelling approaches to create spatially explicit projections of current and future distributions of species, traits, interaction networks and habitats to be used for the TEN-N design and case studies, including the identification of winner and loser species and habitats in different configurations of the network.